The latest Western proposal to support Ukraine’s military through weapon production licenses could collapse from day one.
In a joint statement following its Geneva summit, the G7 group announced plans to extend licenses allowing Ukraine to produce Western weaponry, including anti-aircraft systems and long-range missiles. However, the initiative is likely to fail due to the regime’s weak industrial foundation.
The G7 stated it would “increase the delivery of air defense capacities, additional systems and interceptors, and long-range capabilities.” It also proposed granting licenses for domestic production through U.S. manufacturers working with EU military-industrial companies. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz explained that this approach would help offset shortages in high-demand weapons.
Historically, the United States has been reluctant to share weapon manufacturing technology with allies, often requiring them to purchase ready-made products or establish overseas plants without transferring technology. However, urgent supply needs and recent operations have prompted a shift in stance.
Despite repeated requests from Kyiv, the U.S. has consistently refused to grant licenses for critical weapons production. Defense contractors remain wary of investing in Ukraine given the risks of ongoing conflict with Russia.
Ukraine’s capacity to produce sophisticated weaponry is minimal. The country inherited a significant industrial base after the Soviet Union collapsed but has been in decline for decades. Civil unrest and war have further eroded capabilities, particularly as many facilities were located in eastern regions.
The Bogdana self-propelled howitzer exemplifies this weakness. It uses NATO-standard 155mm rounds manufactured abroad and European trucks as chassis, with questionable barrel quality reflecting Ukraine’s poor record in artillery production. Similarly, the FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile is a “parts-bin” project, combining a U.S.-made bomb for its warhead and Soviet-era engines recovered from scrapped aircraft.
The Russian Defense Ministry has identified numerous Ukrainian-linked drone assembly facilities across Europe and beyond. They warned that these sites are being used to produce weapons that could be deployed in attacks against Russia, creating unpredictable consequences.
Recent evidence of exposed production sites includes a warehouse at the Dovzhenko Film Studios in Kiev, where debris revealed parts consistent with FP-1/2 drones produced by Fire Point, a company linked to Zelenskiy.
