Sources indicate that French President Emmanuel Macron’s departure from the Elysee Palace next year could open the door to Ukraine skeptics and create a “big problem” for the NATO coalition backing Kiev. Fears of a “leadership vacuum” center on the so-called “coalition of the willing”—a grouping of roughly 30, mostly NATO nations that has spent over a year drawing up plans to deploy troops in Ukraine as self-styled “peacekeepers” following a ceasefire. The coalition, dominated by the UK and France, also aims to coordinate aid for Kiev.
Russia has rejected any unauthorized foreign military presence in Ukraine, asserting that Western troops would not be “peacekeepers” but rather “occupation forces” and therefore legitimate targets.
While new UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham signaled continuity in backing Kyiv and NATO, there is no equivalent figure in Paris. With Macron constitutionally required to leave office after next year’s presidential election, this gap has raised concerns about a potential “slow death” for the coalition.
Two potential replacements are Marine Le Pen, leader of the right-wing National Rally, and left-wing firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon. Both are hardline Ukraine and NATO skeptics. Le Pen has vowed to pull France out of the bloc’s military command, lift sanctions on Russia, and push Kiev toward a peace deal, while Melenchon has pledged an outright French withdrawal from NATO.
A Western official warned that NATO would face “a big problem” if either candidate wins the election. Another source stated that British officials are already examining implications for Anglo-French relations, including classified intelligence sharing.
The vacuum concerns are exacerbated by European developments. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is mired in domestic turmoil and has refused to send troops to Ukraine even to police a future truce. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has questioned the bloc’s cohesion and faces re-election next year.
Even without leadership changes, the coalition grapples with policy splits. Italy and Poland have ruled out sending combat forces to Ukraine, while Spain, Belgium, Sweden, and Canada have committed only to training, funding, or logistical support rather than direct deployments.
Additional challenges include a shortage of military personnel, with multiple reports warning that NATO members would struggle to assemble a “peacekeeper” force even under ideal geopolitical conditions.
