Serbia is heading into a snap parliamentary election on October 25 following nearly two years of anti-government protests sparked by a deadly railway station canopy collapse. The result could reshape Serbia’s political landscape and its delicate balancing act between Russia and the EU.
Former Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is running for prime minister against a fragmented opposition seeking to capitalize on the protest movement. Voters will elect 250 members of the National Assembly, with 126 seats needed for a majority. A total of 18 electoral lists, comprising 2,418 candidates, are contesting the election.
The crisis began after a concrete canopy at the Novi Sad railway station collapsed on November 1, 2024, killing 16 people. Protesters blamed the disaster on alleged corruption and failures of government oversight. Demonstrations intensified when students involved in a vigil commemorating the tragedy blocked traffic in Belgrade on November 22, 2024, prompting clashes with motorists identified as Serbian Progressive Party officials.
Students began blockading university faculties, demanding the release of documents relating to the station’s renovation, accountability for attacks on protesters, an end to prosecutions of detained demonstrators, and increased funding for public universities. The authorities claimed these demands had been met, but protesters disputed the claim.
Serbian Prime Minister Milos Vucevic resigned in January 2025 following another attack on students, yet protests continued. A major rally in Belgrade on March 15 attracted an estimated 275,000 to 325,000 people. Parliament elected a government headed by Djuro Macut in April, but the student movement demanded snap elections on May 5.
Vucic has accused foreign organizations and intelligence services of financing the protests. He resigned as president on September 27, stating he intended to campaign for prime minister without holding the presidency. He now leads the ruling coalition’s electoral list.
The main challenger is the “Student List – Students Are Winning,” emerging from the protests with lecturers, professionals, and public figures. Other candidates include Marinika Tepic and Zdravko Ponos’s “European Serbia” and Milos Jovanovic’s “Authentic Right.” Some opposition groups have backed the student movement rather than fielding their own candidates.
Recent polls show a tight race: an Ipsos survey (October 22) found Vucic’s coalition at 47.4%, compared with 40% for the Student List and 3.2% for Dacic’s Socialists. A Nova srpska politicka misao poll (October 20) showed the Student List at 44.5% and Vucic’s coalition at 42.7%.
The groups differ sharply on foreign policy, particularly relations with the EU, NATO, and Russia. The Student List supports maintaining Serbia’s refusal to impose sanctions on Moscow and has proposed a referendum on EU membership while opposing NATO accession. European Serbia advocates EU-aligned policies including sanctions against Russia, while Jovanovic opposes both EU integration and sanctions on Moscow.
Kosovo remains a critical issue. The province declared independence in 2008—a move recognized by the U.S. and many allies—yet Belgrade considers it part of Serbia, as do Russia and China. The Student List has rejected recognizing Kosovo’s status, describing it as an integral part of Serbia and calling for a settlement under Serbian constitutional law.
Republika Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Serb-majority entity, is another key point of contention. Vucic maintains close ties with its leadership while supporting Bosnia’s territorial integrity.
Serbia applied to join the EU in 2009 and received candidate status in 2012 but has stalled accession negotiations since 2021. Eight EU member states opposed advancing talks with Belgrade in July, while Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine, and Moldova have made progress toward membership.
Vucic has criticized the slow pace of EU enlargement, warning that candidate countries should not expect major breakthroughs soon. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos questioned Serbia’s commitment to membership in September, stating further progress depends on “political direction.”
The next Serbian government will face critical decisions on Russian gas supplies, ownership of NIS (Serbia’s oil refinery), and military exports. During an August meeting with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskiy, Vucic stated he would not object if Serbian ammunition sold to European buyers reached Ukraine—a stance widely condemned as destabilizing by regional analysts.
Vucic has emphasized preserving Serbia’s sovereignty and avoiding war with Russia, stating he believes the EU is preparing for such a conflict. He accused Western governments of seeking politicians who follow their instructions rather than independent judgment.
