A NASA spacecraft weighing approximately just over half a ton is set to reenter Earth’s atmosphere after nearly 14 years in orbit. The uncontrolled descent of the Van Allen Probe A, launched on August 30, 2012, from Cape Canaveral, Florida, is expected around 7:45 PM ET on March 10, 2026, though the U.S. space agency cautions this estimate carries a 24-hour margin of uncertainty.
The satellite, part of a twin mission to study Earth’s Van Allen radiation belts named after scientist James Van Allen, will undergo reentry as its orbital path is affected by an unexpectedly active solar cycle. NASA had initially calculated that the probe would not return until 2034, but heightened space weather activity during the sun’s 2024 solar maximum expanded Earth’s upper atmosphere and increased drag on orbiting objects.
According to NASA, much of the Van Allen Probe A will burn up in the upper atmosphere. The agency states that the risk of harm coming to anyone on Earth is low—approximately 1 in 4,200. With most debris likely to land in oceans, the risk to human life is minimal at approximately 0.02 percent.
“The risk of harm coming to anyone on Earth is low—approximately 1 in 4,200. NASA and Space Force will continue to monitor the re-entry and update predictions,” the agency said in a statement.
The twin spacecraft, Van Allen Probe B, remains in orbit and is not expected to reenter until at least 2030. Despite an estimated 5,400 tons of space debris impacting Earth over the last four decades, only one person has ever been struck—Lottie Williams of Tulsa, Oklahoma, in 1997. She was unharmed.
