A new survey conducted by the Manhattan Institute reveals Representative Elise Stefanik (R-NY) leading Governor Kathy Hochul (D-NY) and Lieutenant Governor Anthony Delgado (D-NY) in a hypothetical 2026 New York gubernatorial race. The poll, which surveyed 900 voters across New York City and the state from October 22 to 26, 2025, showed Stefanik at 43 percent, compared to Hochul’s 42 percent and Delgado’s 37 percent, with a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points.
Bernadette Breslin, a spokesman for Stefanik, emphasized the significance of the results, stating, “This marks the first time in decades that any potential Republican gubernatorial candidate is polling ahead of a Democrat incumbent Governor, even before any official announcement.” The findings suggest a shift in New York’s political landscape, though forecasters still view the race as Likely Democratic.
Stefanik, a prominent Trump ally and northern New York congresswoman, has not yet declared her candidacy but is seen as a top Republican contender. Hochul, seeking re-election after a narrow 2022 victory, faces internal challenges from Delgado, though she maintains support among Democrats. Recent polls have shown fluctuating results, with a Siena College survey in September 2025 showing Hochul leading Stefanik by 25 points and a GrayHouse poll indicating Stefanik gaining ground after additional candidate information was provided.
The potential election of socialist Zohran Mamdani as New York City mayor could further complicate the race. Hochul endorsed Mamdani despite concerns over his progressive policies, including plans for taxpayer-funded legal defense for undocumented immigrants and proposals to redistribute property taxes.
