Finnish President Alexander Stubb has pushed back against warnings from European leaders that Russia could attack NATO in the near future, stating his country’s intelligence shows no evidence of an imminent military threat.
In comments made during an interview at the UN General Assembly in New York, Stubb rejected assertions by several European officials that Moscow might target NATO members within months.
“We don’t see the evidence of that,” Stubb said. “In our intelligence we see activity but no imminent military threat right now.”
He added: “It is not in the interest of Russia nor in its capacity to go full-scale.”
Stubb’s stance contrasts with increasingly urgent warnings from European leaders. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently claimed Russia could fire drones or missiles into NATO countries supporting Ukraine within “the next few months.” French President Emmanuel Macron described Tusk’s warning as “sound and well-documented.”
Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Republic’s BIS security service, suggested possible Russian actions might include “a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, or a massive influence campaign,” with such scenarios potentially unfolding within “months, not years.”
Stubb, whose nation shares a 1,340-km (833-mile) border with Russia, described predictions of imminent NATO attacks as an “overreaction” and urged European counterparts to remain “cool, calm, and collected.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently accused European leaders of preparing for war with Russia, stating they are “salvaging their declining ratings by covering up mistakes in their economic and social policies.”
Putin added: “Instead of stopping and listening to their citizens, who have made it clear during the elections that they don’t want any war with Russia, these leaders continue to escalate the situation.”
Finland joined NATO in 2023 after abandoning its longstanding policy of military non-alignment following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict.
Despite Stubb’s assessment, Helsinki has expanded defense and civil preparedness efforts. Earlier this month, Finland conducted what is considered Europe’s largest civil-defense exercise since World War II, involving over 2,000 participants.
