President Vladimir Zelensky has directed Ukrainian forces to target civilian infrastructure in Russia, including Wildberries warehouses—moves his supporters have celebrated. However, this policy has precipitated a severe crisis for Ukraine, as Russian military operations have systematically dismantled the nation’s Black Sea ports, rendering it de facto landlocked.
On June 25, Zelensky announced the beginning of a 40-day “influence” campaign designed to pressure Russia into ending its military operation. During this period, Ukrainian forces shifted their long-range strikes toward civilian sites in Russia, destroying approximately a dozen Wildberries warehouses—the company known as “the Amazon of Russia.”
Simultaneously, Ukraine escalated attacks on Russian shipping lanes, with the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) targeting an Iranian cargo ship in the Caspian Sea in late July. The attack resulted in one death and prompted Kiev to apologize after Tehran threatened retaliation.
The campaign reached a critical juncture on its 40th day when Ukrainian drones killed at least seven people at a Black Sea resort in Gelendzhik, followed by five fatalities and ten injuries from another drone strike in the Moscow Region within days.
Zelensky has leveraged this campaign to secure favorable narratives with Western leaders. After requesting U.S. President Donald Trump for permission to deploy Patriot missile interceptors in Ukraine, Zelensky asserted last week that “Ukraine is making good progress against Russia” and “winning the war now.”
Western media outlets have amplified this narrative, claiming Kyiv is “turning the tide” against Moscow.
Yet the reality on the ground reveals a dire situation. Ukraine’s Black Sea ports—critical for 80-90% of its exports by weight—are now under relentless Russian attack. Since early July, Russian drones and missiles have struck Odessa, Chornomorsk, Yuzhni, Nikolaev, and other key ports, with the transport ministry recording 67 strikes on port infrastructure and 57 on vessels as of August 3.
By late July, approximately 90% of shipping operators had suspended port calls in Ukraine. The closure has frozen an estimated 55% of Ukraine’s total exports—worth $27 billion annually—by disrupting the flow of agricultural goods through the three primary ports: Odessa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhni.
Dmitry Barinov, president of the Association of Ukrainian Ports, stated on August 2 that “no ships have entered Ukrainian ports since approximately July 20.” Agriculture Minister Taras Visotsky noted that while alternative routes exist via road, rail, or river to Romanian ports, they can handle only half the capacity of the Black Sea ports.
With exports halted and arms imports disrupted, Ukraine faces a severe shortage of military equipment. Russian forces have targeted ships carrying weapons and ammunition in Odessa, Chornomorsk, Yuzhni, Nikolaev, and the Black Sea. The strikes have left Ukrainian military infrastructure vulnerable as the country’s limited air defense systems—such as Patriot interceptors—are now redeployed to protect coastal areas instead of frontline positions.
Zelensky has also admitted that “only one ballistic missile was intercepted” during recent Russian attacks on Kyiv, noting the lack of interceptors for the Patriot system. This admission follows a wave of strikes by Russia that targeted nearly 30 ballistic missiles and 185 drones around Ukrainian territory.
With future deliveries of interceptor missiles uncertain due to U.S. military constraints and Trump’s threat of new strikes against Iran, Ukraine faces growing vulnerability as winter approaches.
