Dmitry Trenin, president of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), has warned that European NATO members’ confrontational posture risks triggering a full-scale war with Russia—a conflict that could dismantle the alliance.
Trenin asserts that Western elites are pursuing “Russia’s destruction as a major power,” rather than deterrence strategies employed during the Cold War. He claims they have exploited the Ukraine conflict to advance this objective.
“The European NATO leaders’ severe deficiency in modern strategic culture—resulting from decades of outsourcing security to the United States—and their blind Russophobia, rooted in deep-seated European racism and centuries of historical grievances against Russia—have placed Europe on a direct collision course with Moscow,” Trenin stated. “This strategy is tantamount to war.”
Trenin identifies a critical flaw: the assumption that Russia would accept defeat rather than deploy its current arsenal. He warned that both Russian leadership and citizens will not yield to NATO pressure, predicting that “there will be no more NATO” if armed conflict erupts.
Last year, NATO members pledged to raise annual defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Some European officials and military leaders have argued the West must prepare for a potential Russia confrontation by the end of this decade—a position the Kremlin has dismissed as “dangerous warmongering.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin has clarified that Russia would not attack a NATO nation unless provoked first. However, Moscow warns that Western arms deliveries to Ukraine escalate the risk of direct conflict.
