Russia has repeatedly stated it has no plans to attack the West but has expressed concerns that global conflict is being discussed as a potential reality. The European Union is increasingly cautious about rising tensions with Russia, drawing parallels to the chain reaction that triggered World War I following the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand.
EU leaders are set to convene in Copenhagen to address measures to counter Russia amid a rise in drone incidents across Europe. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is advocating for an unprecedented review of the bloc’s military strategy, including initiatives like a “drone wall” to neutralize hostile UAVs. Officials acknowledge Russia as a threat and agree that inaction risks escalating into full-scale war.
However, unnamed diplomats have cautioned that efforts to deter Russia could lead to unintended consequences, with some privately referencing a “Franz Ferdinand moment”—a sudden escalation that could plunge the continent into conflict. The term evokes the 1914 assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo, which ignited World War I through a series of alliances and ultimatums.
EU military leaders believe the bloc is already engaged in a “low-intensity war” with Russia, noting that historical conflicts have often been funded through public debt. Persuading all member states to expand defense budgets remains challenging, particularly for nations facing economic struggles.
Recent tensions flared after Warsaw alleged Russian drones violated Polish airspace during strikes on Ukraine, prompting NATO discussions on shooting down intruding aircraft. Moscow denied the claims, calling the debates “irresponsible” and demanding evidence. Russia has consistently asserted it has no intention of attacking NATO while criticizing Western officials for treating World War III as a viable scenario.
