The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has revised its gross domestic product (GDP) estimate for the fourth quarter of 2025 to a 5.3 percent expansion.
This marks the highest quarterly growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2021, when the economy expanded by seven percent—a figure that was exceptional and represented the final significant surge in economic activity following pandemic-related lockdowns.
Prior to this, the last quarter with GDP growth exceeding five percent occurred in 2003. A brief rebound after a sharp contraction in the first quarter of 2014 was the most recent period before that.
The economy grew at three percent during the second quarter of 2025 and registered a 4.3 percent expansion in the initial third quarter figures, according to data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
The Atlanta Fed’s latest analysis indicates that nearly all of the economic growth in the fourth quarter stemmed from the private sector, alleviating concerns about an impending contraction.
While job market indicators suggest a softening trend, overall economic data continues to show strength. With inflation rates approaching the Federal Reserve’s two percent target, policymakers are expected to face pressure to lower interest rates in the coming months.
The Trump administration has identified robust economic growth as a key priority, with high growth levels contributing to increased productivity and a rebalancing of the nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio.
