A new poll conducted by the California Issues Forum between November 30 and December 7, 2025, surveyed 821 likely voters and shows former Fox News host Steve Hilton leading the field in California’s gubernatorial jungle primary with a narrow one-point edge over Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R) and Representative Eric Swalwell (D-CA). The survey indicates Hilton holds 18 percent of the vote, while both Bianco and Swalwell register at 17 percent. Former Representative Katie Porter (D-CA), who was previously the race’s frontrunner but has faced personal scandals, now trails at 13 percent.
If Hilton and Bianco advance as the top two candidates in this jungle primary—which determines general election participants based on vote count regardless of party—the state would elect a Republican governor for the first time since 2011.
The poll reveals that Swalwell’s entry into the race in November triggered a significant decline in Porter’s support. In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup between Democratic candidates, Swalwell leads Porter by 30 percent to 21 percent, with 20 percent undecided. California Attorney General Rob Bonta (D) is reportedly considering entering the race, which could further fragment the Democratic vote and strengthen Republican positions in the 2026 general election.
